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A new poll shows a majority of British Columbians believe a recession is imminent.
Conversely, a similar number feel confident in the stability of the Canadian economy.
The Insights West survey reveals British Columbians are feeling both confident and shaky when it comes to the Canadian economy’s prospects and their own financial situation over the next 12 months.
The survey showed 64% of respondents rate their confidence in the Canadian economy as “good” or “very good”, but an equally large number (62%) feel a recession is imminent within the next 12 months.
British Columbians are holding steady on their confidence about household finances. A total of 69% describe the state of their finances today as good (56%) or very good (13%), a nearly identical number to a January poll.
Despite this, they still have worries about personal investments. A total of 65% (-3%) of British Columbians say they are worried about the value of their investments, the safety of their savings (56%, -3%), being able to pay their bills (51%, no change) or their balance on a credit card (49%, +3%), or unemployment affecting their household (46%, -2%).
Smaller proportions are concerned about being able to pay their mortgage or rent (37%, no change) or about their employer running into financial trouble (28%, -3%).
Men are more likely than women (66% vs. 57%) to expect a nationwide recession in the next 12 months, as are those with incomes of more than $75,000 per year (64% vs. 59% of those under $75,000 per year).
The figures for August 2019 show that 38% of BC residents expect the Canadian economy to take a decline within the next six months (up from 33% in January and significantly up from the 17% who felt that way at the beginning of 2017).
“While overall confidence in the economy as a whole is rather optimistic, there are some major storm clouds on the horizon,” says Steve Mossop, president of Insights West.
“Our economic tracker shows that while there hasn’t been a significant dip in how people feel about the economy or towards their overall personal household finances, the fact that the majority of British Columbians now feel as though a recession is quite likely in the next twelve months means that consumer sentiment is volatile, and it wouldn’t take much to turn sentiment negative – a subsequent downturn could be a self-fulfilled prophesy.”
