Scenarios is a feature where Dan Donkers looks at an upcoming event and imagines the best case, worst case, most likely, and least likely scenarios for that particular event. Sometimes it gets weird. I mean, it's pretty unlikely that the Sedins would retire from the NHL, take up basketball, and bring the Grizzlies back to Vancouver. But it's certainly a scenario.
The space between the end of the preseason and the beginning of the regular season is one of my favorite times of the year. I’m an optimistic person by nature, so you can understand why I revel in that brief space of time where the only reality is hope.
Sure, naysayers may say their nays about the upcoming season. But here’s the thing, I can predict the Canucks will win 75 games, and, in this magical time, be just as right as they are! No one can know what will actually happen. That’s the beauty of this moment: the sharp pin of reality has yet to burst the overblown balloon of my hopes and dreams for the upcoming season. Because anyone who knows me knows I get startled and cry when balloons are popped.
That being said, the Canucks’ season is set to begin on Saturday, and there’s nothing I can do about it. I think it would be prudent to at least acknowledge reality ahead of time by looking at how the first couple weeks of the season might go. To do that, I would like to play a little game I call “Scenarios.” We'll hit the best case, worst case, most likely, and least likely scenarios for the start of the Canucks season. Things might get weird.
Best Case Scenario
Did you know the Canucks play nine games in the space of two weeks? That seems like a lot. You know who can handle a big chunk of games in a short space of time? Young people. They’re always so excited and full of energy. The roster is full of so many young people this year. If you look at the team web site you’ll notice many post-1990 birthdays, which makes me feel so old. In 1995, when Brendan Gaunce was one, I was in grade 7 having my mind blown by Counting Crows. The band. I didn't count birds as a hobby or anything.
The young kids are going to be expected to carry a lot of weight this year if the team hopes to do well. In the best case scenario, Bo Horvat takes a leap forward this year offensively. The offensive pressure is not all on Horvat, however. Jake Virtanen and Sven Baertschi will need to get off to a quick start as well. If they can provide some scoring to support the Sedins, things will go well for the Canucks. Fortunately they have a few soft games to begin the season. Edmonton and Calgary are getting better, but they are still beatable. Carolina and Buffalo should be winnable games as well.
Probably the biggest question mark for the Canucks this season is their youthful defense. They actually look deeper than they did last year, although the loss of Hamhuis could hurt. All in all I feel pretty confident about the top four. Erik Gudbrandson won’t necessarily be the fanciest player, but he’ll be a dependable and physical presence on the blue line. If the third pairing, whoever that may be, can hold together, the Canucks have a good chance of starting the season strong.
Best Case Scenario: 6-2-1
If the Canucks can take care of the Canadian teams, beat one of the two California teams, and get either the Blues or the Capitals to overtime, they’ll have a pretty successful start to the season. That all depends, of course, on a strong defensive game and goals from fresh faces in the lineup.
Worst Case Scenario
The Sedins, who have been carrying this team like two winged horses the last couple of years, still have enough skill and smarts to be difference makers this year. I think playing with Loui Eriksson will inject some new life into their game. But we’re talking about the worst case scenario here. In this case the Sedins and the Son of Erik turn out to be the only line that provides consistent offense. That may fly against the Oilers and Flames (as it often does), but it won’t work against stronger teams like the Ducks, Kings and Capitals.
If we add to this problem defensive lapses and chemistry issues on the back end, things could look pretty bleak. I haven’t mentioned the goaltenders yet because both Miller and Markstrom have proven that they can be at least dependably good most nights and exceptionally great on some nights. But if the defense fails to click early, life will be difficult for the goalies. As if playing in Vancouver doesn’t make their lives difficult enough.
Worst Case Scenario: 1-5-3
Even in the worst case scenario the Canucks can probably push teams like the Hurricanes and Senators to overtime. Nevertheless, this would be a dismal opening to the season, the kind that could make Willie Desjardins’ seat a little uncomfortable.
Most Likely Scenario
Things are neither as sunny nor as bleak as the best and worst case scenarios: the reality will likely be somewhere in the middle.
I suspect it may take some time for the younger players to contribute at their fullest potential: Horvat’s offense will depend heavily on his usage. Virtanen has some kinks to work out after a shortened preseason. Baertschi has struggled with consistency. Granlund is unlikely to carry his strong pre-season into the regular season. Gaunce will need some time to adjust.
However, some of the veterans, particularly Hansen and Sutter, should provide maturity and stability to this youth-heavy roster. They can also be counted on to carry some of the offensive weight while the kids get acclimatized. The defense is more of a question mark, but the top four should be solid enough to prevent any major disasters.
Most Likely Scenario: 4-3-2
I would love to see the Canucks get off to a faster start, but there are some difficult patches in the schedule that make it unlikely. Add to that a youthful roster that may need time to gel, and you have a recipe for a .500 opening to the season.
Least Likely Scenario
It is Saturday afternoon, just a few hours before game time, when Alex Burrows awakes suddenly from his pregame nap. He looks up and sees a beautiful apparition with flowing blonde hair and killer highlights hovering just above the floor a few feet from his bed.
“Alex,” she says, “my name is Florence. I am the ghost of Loui Eriksson’s hairdresser, and I have an important message for you.”
Burrows sits upright in his bed. “Wait,” he says, “Loui’s hairdresser? What’s going on here?”
“There’s little time to explain. You see, I have come to tell you that you are the true Third Sedin. It was written long ago, in Swedish, that the Sedins would use their wizard magic to rule and protect their home nation. They have decided, however, to forfeit their magic and their divine right to rule Sweden in favor of lives of quiet contemplation and occasional horseback riding.”
“Their powers shall be passed on to the player that retires with them as their line-mate. This player will forever be known as The Third Sedin.”
Alex stares at her, dumbfounded. She continues, “You were chosen because only you, of all the players of the NHL, will use those powers for the good of mankind. But now Loui Eriksson has come, bent on stealing those powers for himself. He will use the wizard powers as The Third Sedin to spread pestilence and disease, destroying the lovely nation of Sweden with plagues.”
“But I don’t understand. Why Loui’s hairdresser?” Burrows asks in disbelief.
“You see,” she answers, “all of his hockey power is in his hair. I tried to cut it, but his hair cannot be cut by conventional means and I perished in the attempt. I have been sent here to help you.”
Burrows nods, attempting to appear serious, but can’t keep himself from grinning. The apparition continues, unfazed. “You must find the blade of baldness. It lies buried beneath the waters of False Creek, undisturbed for centuries past. I can show you the way, but I cannot help you retrieve it. That can only be up to you, chosen one.”
Burrows begins to chuckle. Florence pauses, confused. “What is it? Why do you laugh?”
Burrows attempts to compose himself, but says between giggles, “I’m sorry, I can’t help it.” He stifles a laugh, before finally bursting out:
“He’ll use his sick flow to make everyone sick, Flo!”
He can no longer hold back the laughter and rolls off his bed gasping for air. The room darkens. Florence folds her ghostly arms and stares at Alex. He looks up at her. It’s as if the whole room has furrowed its brow in disgust. There is a long pause. Finally, Florence speaks. “I’ve made a huge mistake,” she says, and disappears.
Alex Burrows composes himself and prepares to head to the arena for the first game of the season. He contemplates his career, and the loss of his chance to defeat Eriksson and claim his rightful place as The Third Sedin, condemning Sweden to untold years of suffering. He feels a tinge of sadness, but then he smiles. It was all worth it for that best English language pun he would ever made.
