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Canucks fans hoping for a home run at the 2018 trade deadline were guaranteed to be disappointed. Jim Benning wasn’t even swinging for the fences. Even fans hoping for a double or a solid single had reason to be upset. The Canucks’ moves on deadline day could be likened to a bunt single and a sacrifice fly.
Acquiring Brendan Leipsic, a 5’9” sparkplug with some offensive upside, for Philip Holm is a bunt single; a good move, but with limited potential. On the other hand, getting Tyler Motte, whose potential seems even more limited than that of Leipsic, for Thomas Vanek, who was second on the Canucks in scoring, feels like a big miss.
The bigger issue is that the rebuilding Canucks are either unwilling or unable to acquire draft picks with which to rebuild. While Benning and Trevor Linden pay lip service to building through the draft, they repeatedly limit their building materials.
The Canucks have made just 28 picks in the last four years, the same number of picks with which every team starts. Heading into the 2018 draft, they have just six picks, one short of the seven they are granted every year.
Every pick acquired is another chance at drafting the next key member of the core of the team. Under Benning, the Canucks have repeatedly foregone draft picks in favour of players further along in their development, which gives them a little more certainty, but significantly less possibility.
To paraphrase one Canucks fan on Twitter, I would rather have an unscratched lotto ticket that still has a chance to win a jackpot, than one already scratched that is a one-dollar winner.
In addition, the Canucks’ refusal or inability to acquire more draft picks limits their chances of making an impact move in the future. Look to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who made the biggest move at the trade deadline, acquiring Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers.
To get McDonagh, they packaged up Vladislav Namestnikov, who has 20 goals this season, with a first-round pick and a conditional second-round pick that becomes a first if the Lightning win the Stanley Cup within the next two seasons.
Along with Namestnikov and the two picks, the Lightning added two prospects: Brett Howden and Libor Hajek, their first two picks in the 2016 draft. The Lightning felt comfortable moving them, not only because of the value of McDonagh for their playoff run, but also because of their prospect pool, widely considered one of the best and deepest in the NHL.
In the 2016 draft, the Lightning had 10 draft picks, including three in the second round. They had nine draft picks the year before that. The wealth of prospects that resulted from those picks gave them the freedom to trade two of them for what they believe was the missing component in getting them to the Stanley Cup.
Every draft pick has three potential results: an impact NHL player, an NHL player that fails to live up to expectations, or a bust. A savvy general manager can turn prospects in the latter two categories into trade assets. By trading those prospects before they lose value, a team on the brink of Cup contention can provide a big boost to the lineup.
The Canucks are essentially banking on all of their top prospects making the NHL, with no margin for error. That will leave them with minimal assets to use in trades if the team does move into playoff contention.
Stick-taps and Glove-drops
A farewell stick-tap to Thomas Vanek, who was full value for his one-year, $2 million contract. It is unfathomable to me that other teams weren’t willing to give up a good draft pick for what he brings to the lineup, but here’s wishing him all the best in Columbus with the Blue Jackets.
Dropping the gloves with Jim Benning for this quote: “I think defencemen today held their value and you got picks for depth defencemen. I think that’s something we are going to study going forward and keep in mind for future trade deadlines.” Teams overpay for defencemen at the trade deadline every single season. This should not have come as a surprise.
Big Numbers
35 - A whopping 35 draft picks exchanged hands in the week leading up to the trade deadline and on deadline day, including multiple first-round picks. This after Benning suggested they would be hard to come by: “picks and prospects are going to be like gold.”
41 - Vanek’s 41 points in 61 games with the Canucks, was behind only Brock Boeser at the time of the trade. At his $2 million cap hit, Vanek is one of the most cost-effective players in the entire NHL. Among players whose contracts end in unrestricted free agency, Vanek is 13th in cost per point.
