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The Canucks ended 2017 by losing nine of their last 11 games. Prior to that losing skid, the Canucks were in a playoff position, sitting third in the Pacific Division behind the Los Angeles Kings and surprising Vegas Golden Knights.
Heading into the new year, however, the Canucks were at the bottom of the Western Conference, ahead of only the abysmal Arizona Coyotes, and seven points out of the playoffs. That’s a massive hill to climb at this time of year, particularly when there are five other teams ahead of them attempting to climb the same hill.
At minimum, it will likely take 91 points to make the playoffs. With 37 points at the end of 2017, the Canucks needed 54 points in their final 43 games — maybe a 25-14-4 record — to even have a hope of making the playoffs. Instead, they kicked off 2018 with another loss.
25 wins is not impossible once Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi, Chris Tanev, and Brandon Sutter return to the lineup, but it is a lot to hope for. That raises the question: should fans hope for that all? Should they be aiming to finish as high as possible or as low as possible in the standings? Should the Canucks tank?
There are some Canucks fans who never want to see the team tank, but with how the draft lottery works, tanking is often a team’s best chance to improve quickly, and the 2018 World Juniors gave fans a reason to change their minds.
That’s where a lot of hockey fans got their first real look at Rasmus Dahlin, the consensus first overall pick for the 2018 NHL draft. The 17-year-old led Sweden in icetime with over 23 minutes per game and was named the best defenceman at the tournament.
Dahlin looks like a franchise-defining player and the exact type of defenceman the Canucks have never had: a true number one, capable of devouring minutes in all situations and racking up points. It’s enough to make you pray to whichever gods, hockey or otherwise, might give the Canucks the first overall pick in the draft.
Their best bet? Finish as low in the standings as possible. But tanking isn’t just about aiming for the first overall pick, which even the last place team only has an 18% chance of winning in the draft lottery. It’s about getting the highest pick possible.
Finishing 29th last season didn’t guarantee the Canucks the second-overall pick, but did guarantee a top-five pick. Even as three teams passed them in the draft lottery, the Canucks still picked fifth overall and took Elias Pettersson, who could make an argument for being the best player in the draft.
Dahlin is certainly the prize of the 2018 draft, but there’s also the dominant Russian winger Andrei Svechnikov, dynamic offensive defenceman Adam Boqvist, sniper Filip Zadina, talented agitator Brady Tkachuk, and many other tantalizing prospects. A low finish would give the Canucks the best possible chance of getting a great player.
The Canucks are not far enough in their rebuild to prioritize making the playoffs over adding another core piece for the future in the draft. That doesn’t mean the Canucks should try to lose — it is simply not in the nature of players or coaches to do anything but try to win — but Jim Benning can make moves for the future that diminish their ability to win now.
Stick-taps and Glove-drops
I’m dropping the gloves with the gimmicky outdoor game at the World Junior Championship between Canada and the US. The spectacle just wasn’t worth the poor conditions for an important game. You have to wonder if the conditions played a role in the tournament-ending injury to Canucks prospect Will Lockwood.
Stick-tap to Brock Boeser for being named the NHL’s Rookie of the Month for December. Boeser had eight goals and 13 points in 13 games in December. It’s his second honour in as many months, as he was also the Rookie of the Month for November.
Big Numbers
80.1 - The Canucks are currently on pace for 75.9 points based on their current standings. Hockey analyst Micah Blake McCurdy’s model is slightly more optimistic, projecting 80.1 points for the Canucks at the end of the season. Somehow the Canucks need to find an extra 10 or 11 points if they want to have even a hope of the playoffs.
100 - Meanwhile, McCurdy’s model projects that the expansion Vegas Golden Knights will finish with 100 points. It’s simply stunning how a team made up from the scraps of the NHL has become one of the top teams in the league. It could, in fact, be seen as an indictment of how NHL general managers evaluate talent.
