The poll that came closest to calling the result right in Tuesdays provincial election was still wildly wrong. A Forum Research poll done six days before the vote showed a mere two-point gap between the Liberals and the NDP. Of course, it still had the NDP out in front, not losing by almost five per cent in the popular vote and 17 seats in the Legislature.
Political polling has been around for about 180 years, and its been a major part of political campaigns for almost a century. It started with straw polls and postcards, then moved on to direct interviews and phone surveys.
Its now completely broken. In Quebec, Alberta, and now B.C., weve seen dramatic failures of the polls to predict the final results. Why? I really dont know.
Neither does anyone else. There are explanations that may very well be correct. Some say that a reliance on online polling picked up results from too many young, potential NDP voters, just as phone polling in Alberta picked up too many older, Wild Rose supporters. Others say it was a last-minute shift in undecided voters. Maybe it was the humidity.
Maybe it was the high CO2 in the atmosphere. Maybe Christy Clark promised to give young Hamish to Rumpelstiltskin in exchange for victory. Maybe Adrian Dix angered Zeus, and was smacked down for it.
All of these are post facto rationalizations. The practical result is that using a variety of different polling techniques, a number of firms have failed utterly across multiple provinces.
Good. Maybe we can be done with polls forever.
It would be good, first of all, to wean reporters off polls. We love horse-race coverage of elections. Whos up? Whos down? Who has momentum? Heck, Im addicted to this stuff, too.
But covering the race takes time away from covering the issues.
Remember all those extensive discussions about health care and education during this last provincial campaign?
(Sound of crickets.)
Second, for decades its been a cynical joke that parties dont make policies, they poll and then fit themselves around what voters think.
Are attitudes changing about gay marriage? Wait till it gets over 50 per cent, and then the parties will consider changing their platform.
A majority of Canadians favour legalization of pot? Maybe nows the time to switch up that party platform.
On social issues, the public is leading the politicians, while on economics, the parties have become all too similar.
If the polls are meaningless, parties will have to do the unthinkable. Theyll have to advocate for what they believe and hope they can win over the voters.
We havent seen this kind of politics in Canada since W.A.C. Bennett was still managing a hardware store.
I would love to see parties take positions based on what they absolutely think is the right thing to do. Is it right to decriminalize pot? How much should we raise or lower taxes? How much of a voice should unions or businesses have in Victoria? More foreign workers? Scrap MSP payments? Allow people to pay for faster surgeries?
Without polling on major issues, parties will, without a doubt, crash and burn in spectacular and unexpected ways. Theyll have to change how they campaign, how they raise funds.
There will probably be a lot more money spent on getting warm bodies to rallies and to the polls on election day. But hopefully, there will mostly be more talk and debate, and honest attempts to change the minds of voters, not to parrot back what the pollsters say people want.
