Fans of teams that missed the playoffs don’t have a lot to look forward to during the month of April. While the playoffs are still enjoyable to watch from an emotional remove, it’s just not the same, even if you’ve picked a new team for which to cheer.
There is one event on the calendar of every non-playoff team, however, and it’s coming up this Saturday: the draft lottery. The fate of the franchise’s future lies in the hands of some tumbling ping-pong balls and, on Saturday, Canucks fans will find out how those ping-pong balls fell.
Will the Canucks win the first overall pick and get the shining prize of Rasmus Dahlin, the stud Swedish defenceman? Or will they fall all the way to ninth overall and have to choose wisely from whatever top-tier prospects remain?
The results of the draft lottery will be announced on Saturday starting at 4:30 pm during Hockey Central Saturday on CBC and Sportsnet. Picks 15 through 4 will be announced prior to the start of the game between the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights, then, for some reason, they’ll wait to announce the top three picks until the second intermission.
It is a dumb decision for multiple reasons, but the simplest is this: no one wants to wait that long. Just get on with it and announce the top-three picks prior to puck-drop instead of making three teams’ fanbases wait nearly two hours to find out where their team is picking in the top-three.
One of those teams could be the Canucks, even if the odds are against it. Thanks to the NHL’s new(ish) draft rules, any team that misses the playoffs has a chance at the top-three picks, so the Canucks could end up with any one of seven different picks.
To help you prepare for Saturday, I’ve put together the odds of the Canucks getting each pick and presented a guide for an appropriate reaction to the news.
1st - 7.5%
Reaction: Pure, unadulterated jubilation
This is it. The big one. The first overall pick. The Canucks are going to get Rasmus Dahlin, who has been hyped as the next Erik Karlsson, except bigger and more physical. He’s a franchise-defining player that would immediately fill the Canucks’ biggest need. He’s even Swedish. He’s perfect for the Canucks.
Sure, it’s unlikely — five other teams have better odds at the first overall pick — but if it happens and the Canucks win the draft lottery, you can go bananas in whatever way you feel is best.
Scare your dog by running around your living room hollering like a mad man. Buy the bar a round of shots. High-five your best friend. Chug a beer. High-five a stranger. Go out and sit in your car just so you can honk your horn while crying tears of joy. Kiss your significant other like you’ve never kissed them before, causing them to wonder if you love the Canucks more than you love them.
2nd - 7.8%
Reaction: Angry, bitter happiness
I know there’s only a 7.8% chance of the Canucks picking second overall, but some part of me fully believes that this is the most likely result. The Canucks have never in their history picked first overall, starting with the spin of a wheel that landed them the second overall pick in their inaugural season. Instead of Hall-of-Famer Gilbert Perreault, they ended up with a good, but not great, defenceman in Dale Tallon.
Of course, they could have had a Hall-of-Famer of their own if they had picked Darryl Sittler instead, but hindsight is 20/20.
Getting second overall is a win, but it’s a painful one. The Canucks desperately need a blue-chip defenceman, but the consensus second and third-ranked prospects in the draft are wingers: Filip Zadina and Andrei Svechnikov. Both are potentially game-breaking talents and nearly impossible to pass-up for a team desperate for goal-scoring like the Canucks, but neither would fill the Canucks’ biggest need on the blueline.
You’ll be happy with second overall, possibly even thrilled, but there will be a bitter rage underneath it all. And that’s okay.
3rd - 8.0%
Reaction: Grudging joy
You have to be happy that you at least end up in the top-three, but you can still feel a little resentful about it. This has the same issues with the second-overall pick: the best bet is one of the wingers, but the Canucks don’t even get to pick which one. The Canucks would have to decide whether to take whichever player is left between Zadina and Svechnikov or whether to reach for one of the defencemen.
Then there’s the twist that the top-three picks won’t be announced until the second intermission That means the three teams will have to wait through two whole periods of hockey in anticipation of possibly getting the first overall pick. Imagine waiting that long, with the hope of Rasmus Dahlin dancing through your head, only to have the Canucks be the first team announced as the third pick.
There’s joy, sure, but it’s a grudging joy. Feel free to toss in some variation of, “All right. Okay. Yeah. That’s good. Sure.”
6th - 16.3%
Reaction: A moderately satisfied nod
Look, the Canucks finished in 25th place, sixth from the bottom. Really, sixth overall is where they should pick. If the Canucks end up with the sixth pick, you’re not going to be thrilled, but you can be satisfied that they didn’t drop any further and that a team ahead of them in the standings didn’t jump up into the top-three.
There will still be a very good defenceman available at sixth overall, hopefully one of Quinn Hughes or Adam Boqvist, but also Evan Bouchard or Noah Dobson.
No big reaction necessary here: just nod and move on.
7th - 38.9%
Reaction: Resigned sigh
This is the most likely result of the draft lottery for the Canucks. There is a 74.6% chance that the Canucks pick from 6th to 8th, but 7th is whether the Canucks are most likely to end up. Go into the draft lottery expecting 7th and you’re unlikely to be disappointed.
If the Canucks end up at 7th overall, that means that a team that finished ahead of them in the standings jumped ahead of them into the top-three, which is frustrating, but it means just one team made that leap. It could be worse!
To go with your resigned sigh, slouch back in a comfy chair and either stare at the ceiling or at the ice slowly melting in your ginger ale/rum and coke/other beverage with ice in it.
8th - 19.4%
Reaction: Disgusted grunt
Sure, this is the second-most likely scenario for the Canucks, but that doesn’t mean fans have to like it. This is a risky place to land in the draft, as you start to inch towards “reach” territory. There’s less consensus the lower you go and with the top picks taken by the teams above them, the Canucks could take a gamble. Maybe it works out, maybe not. Like Tom Cruise with no pants on, it’s risky business.
If the Canucks pick 8th, two teams ahead of them in the standings jumped into the top-three. One of those teams could be the Chicago Blackhawks or the Edmonton Oilers. Or both of them!
A disgusted grunt is an appropriate reaction, but if you want to spice it up a bit, have a small stack of papers ready to throw in the air to go with the grunt
9th - 2.1%
Reaction: Flip the pool
ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?! A 2.1% CHANCE AND IT HAPPENS?!?! THIS IS RIDICULOUS!!!! THE DRAFT LOTTERY IS RIGGED!!!! BURN IT ALL DOWN!!!!!!!!
I AM NEVER WATCHING ANOTHER NHL GAME IN MY LIFE UNTIL THE FBI RAIDS THE NHL OFFICES AND CONVICTS EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM FOR FRAUD!
THE NHL HATES VANCOUVER!! THIS IS PROOF THAT THE NHL RIGGED THE 2011 STANLEY CUP FINAL!!! IT’S ALL CONNECTED!!!!!!
RAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!
