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Environment Canada comments on Metro Vancouver summer forecast

Are you looking forward to the summer season? ☀️
Environment Canada calls for below-average temperatures in the Metro Vancouver, B.C. weather forecast for summer 2022 but can't give a full update yet.

After one of the coldest springs on record, you might be looking forward to some sunny, warm weather in the months ahead. 

But the national weather forecaster isn't calling for balmy late spring temperatures in Metro Vancouver — and the start of summer isn't looking particularly warm, either. 

April saw below-average temperatures for most of B.C. with several cities seeing record-setting rainfall, too. Environment Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan told Vancouver Is Awesome in a phone interview that it's a bit premature to provide a comment on the summer months but the forecast is currently showing a below-average trend.  

Meteorological summer begins on June 1, which is when the department releases its summer 2022 forecast. Until then, it is calling for colder probabilities for May, June, and July. 

"It is [a] fairly high probability of colder anomalies for B.C....actually Alberta, Saskatchewan, even Southern Manitoba and [the]'s pretty widespread over Western Canada," Castellan explained. 

Metro Vancouver weather forecast

In the short-term, temperatures aren't expected to warm up for "at least a week, if not 10 days," added Castellan, who noted that it may even be closer to two weeks before the region sees "something substantial." 

Temperatures may edge close to seasonal averages on Sunday (May 15) and into Monday but then they are expected to drop down again. 

"We're just dealing with continually trough-y weather with the open door to the Pacific over and over and over. And that's why we have a fairly high confidence in the next couple of weeks, if not four weeks, that things are going to be cooler [and] potentially wetter, also," he said. 

Castellan cautioned that timing is essential for seasonal forecasting, noting the June 1 forecast will provide a more accurate representation of the months ahead. 

"That's why we put out ours at the very last minute before the season. And even then, even if it says...colder than normal or warmer than normal, it still doesn't show you the details and the day to date weather," he explained.

The seasonal forecast is an important tool for different industries, such as agriculture and emergency management, "but it is also not going to tell you whether or not you're going to see a heat dome in the summer even though it has a colder probability for the entire summer."