Economic uncertainty drove home sales and prices down again in B.C.’s Lower Mainland in April and pushed the market deeper into buyers’ territory. Based on local real estate board data, home sales in the region spanning Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission (and the Sea-to-Sky), topped 3,100 units during the month, marking a 26-per-cent, year-over-year decline, and compared to a 17.6-per-cent drop in March. This was the fewest April sales since 2020 at the depths of the pandemic.
From our calculations, this was the fifth consecutive decline in seasonally adjusted sales (7.9 per cent) and lower than the 2022 trough when soaring interest rates cooled demand. Given lower interest rates and modest improvements in affordability, as well as federal measures to increase access to mortgage financing in higher-priced markets, declining sales reflects the tariff-related uncertainty. While the Lower Mainland is less sensitive to U.S. tariffs than other regions of the country due to its industry composition and more diverse trade partners, the region’s sky-high prices mean even a small risk of recession or job market downturn is sufficient, keeping many buyers on the sideline.
A buyers’ market has formed as sharply lower sales have run into a wall of supply. New listings, while easing, remain elevated and are adding to the pool of stale units already on the market. Active listings have climbed to nearly 25,000 units, the highest in more than a decade. Prices have fallen, with the average price down 6.1 per cent year-over-year to $1.148 million. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price is down 2.7 per cent from March. Prices have fallen since January.
Similarly, benchmark prices, which adjust for unit and geographic composition, fell 1.5 per cent month over month and were 2.1 per cent lower year-over-year. Price declines have been concentrated in multi-family units over the past year reflecting excess supply.
B.C.’s labour market recorded slightly higher employment in April with a gain of 0.2 per cent or 6,000 people. However, the pace of year-over-year employment growth in B.C. continued to trend lower, and April’s 0.5-per-cent annual gain was well below the national performance of 1.3 per cent. The province’s labour force expanded faster than employment growth, up by 0.3 per cent, prompting a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 6.2 per cent from 6.1 per cent, but remained below than the national average. The labour participation rate edged up to 65 per cent from 65.1 per cent, along with a 0.1-per-cent increase in population. Tariff impacts are dampening B.C. performance, but impacts have been shallower than in other regions.
During the month, full-time employment led the monthly increase. Full-time employment grew by 0.7 per cent (down 15,900 people) while part-time employment dropped by 1.7 per cent (down 9,800 people). The Vancouver census metropolitan area saw a 0.4-per-cent increase in its employment level, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.6 per cent from 6.7 per cent.
By sector, increases were seen in both goods-producing industries (up 0.8 per cent or 4,000 people) and services-producing industries (up 0.1 per cent or 2,100 people). Agriculture saw the largest gain in employment among goods producers (up 33.6 per cent or 4,300 people), while manufacturing employment increased by one per cent or (up 1,800 people). Within the services-producing categories, wholesale and retail trade employment grew by 1.3 per cent or 5,700 people, while the information, culture and recreation sector grew by 3.3 per cent (up 4,600 people). That said, these increases were offset by large declines in employment in accommodation and food services (down 5.2 per cent or 10,300 people) and professional, scientific, and technical services (down 1.8 per cent or 5,500 people).
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
