The writing was on the wall for Noah Juulsen when Carson Soucy returned from injury. While he got one more game with Nikita Zadorov out with a mystery ailment, but with Zadorov returning, Juulsen will finally be a scratch for the Vancouver Canucks when they face the New York Rangers Monday night after a run of 25-straight games in the lineup.
What’s remarkable about that run is how much better Juulsen got over time.
Back in November, this column questioned why Juulsen was still in the Canucks’ lineup over the likes of Mark Friedman or the call-up options available with the Abbotsford Canucks in the AHL. At the time, it was a valid question, as Juulsen’s underlying numbers were not just bad — they were horrific.
Juulsen was dead last on the Canucks in corsi percentage at 36.0% and expected goals percentage at 29.7%. In other words, when he was on the ice at 5-on-5, the Canucks were out-shot and out-chanced by about a 3-to-1 margin. Those are worst-defenceman-in-the-NHL type of numbers.
But the Canucks were patient with Juulsen and it paid off.
Since that article was published, Juulsen has a 47.2% corsi — still not great but fine for a bottom pairing defenceman — but has a sparkling 54.2% expected goals percentage. That’s second among Canucks defencemen behind only Quinn Hughes in that time frame, though they go about it very differently, with Hughes creating vastly more offence than Juulsen.
Juulsen has massively improved in the defensive zone to the point that he leads all Canucks defencemen with the lowest rate of expected goals against at 5-on-5 for the entire season, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Juulsen has managed this feat primarily by protecting the home plate area in front of the Canucks’ net, with the lowest rate of high-danger chances against among Canucks defencemen.
That shows up in his heatmaps from HockeyViz showing unblocked shot attempts for and against the Canucks at 5-on-5 when Juulsen is on the ice. While he’s still creating next to nothing offensively for the Canucks, Juulsen has been phenomenal at preventing chances for their opposition, which is a perfectly acceptable tradeoff on the bottom pair.
Combine that with his borderline elite play on the penalty kill and Juulsen has become a legitimate asset for the Canucks, which is mindblowing considering how he started the season.
When I asked Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet about Juulsen recently, he admitted that he had a soft spot for Juulsen, particularly because of the way he put in the work when he was a scratch earlier in the season.
“He really struggled early,” said Tocchet. “I gotta give him a lot of credit because he’s really worked with Sergei [Gonchar] and Footey [Adam Foote] on positions, puck decisions…If you watch his positioning, it’s just a credit to where we want him to be. It’s almost like he just goes to the areas that you want him to go. And his puck decisions, to me, have been really good.”
While Juulsen made a lot of mistakes with his puck decisions earlier in the season that led to turnovers and dangerous chances against, he’s improved significantly in this area. His reverses to Ian Cole have been smarter, he’s utilized the boards effectively with bank passes, and he’s been more willing to eat a puck against the boards when a pass isn’t available.
Juulsen has even added the types of heads-up stretch passes that simply were not in his repertoire earlier in the season.
That’s meant cleaner zone exits with Juulsen on the ice and less time spent in the defensive zone. But when he is in the defensive zone, Juulsen pays the price to keep the puck away from the net.
“He’s just been a guy that you can rely on and he’s not afraid to block a shot,” said Tocchet. “I mean, the guy’s got a lot of courage. Good for him, he’s chipping away at his game, he really is.”
Among those who have played at least 20 games this season, Juulsen leads the Canucks in blocked shots per 60 minutes, just ahead of his defence partner, Ian Cole.
“We want to be that steady, dependable pair that can get out of our end quick and get in the offensive zone,” said Cole about playing with Juulsen. “As long as we’re playing steady, that’s good…Juuls has been great for us. He’s mature, he’s getting better. He’s a good skater, he plays strong, he makes smart plays.
“He’s a very, very good NHL hockey player and we’re very fortunate to have him. And we’re getting Souc back, so I think we can look at our D and feel very comfortable with the guys we have.”
