I was as surprised as you were.
When I turned on the tube shortly after 8 p.m. Tuesday night I saw the numbers, then listened to the pundits and the party hacks say it was still too early to tell. So I thought: fine. But, that reasoning began to wear thin fairly soon because, as you know, the Liberal domination in the provincial election held. The NDP was going down.
I will leave it to others to sort out why the pollsters got it so wrong.
This is not the first election where these high priests of public opinion prediction have failed to nail it. Pollsters blew it in Alberta most recently and were also off the mark in Quebec. Meteorologists have a better batting average.
Given the dramatic and unexpected outcome in B.C., this election will become a major case study for future political practitioners. It will be the subject of PhD theses. Books may well be written about it.
Not only will the methodology of pollsters come into question but lets remember the NDP and Adrian Dix managed to blow a double-digit lead in what is one of the most stunning political defeats B.C. has ever seen.
And bear in mind that while Christy Clark made history not only as the comeback kid who gave her party a fourth term for the first time since the days when W.A.C. Bennett was premier, Clark is the first woman to lead any party in this province to political victory.
She framed the ballot question its the economy and defined her major opponent as indecisive and untrustworthy. She beat the pants off Dix as a campaigner. And she proved, once again, that attack ads work. (At this point I wouldnt give you a nickel for Dixs political future.)
Given all that, it must be more than a bit annoying that the good people of Vancouver-Point Grey denied her a victory there.
For the immediate future thought, the question is: what does this mean for Vancouver?
I would note that throughout this campaign, while most of the Vision caucus would have preferred an NDP win, the mayor and his staff managed to keep their noses clean.
You can bet they are not looking forward to having newly minted Liberal MLAs Sam Sullivan and Suzanne Anton back on the scene and possibly sticking it to a city government that is not to their liking.
On the plus side though, Mayor Gregor Robertson and his crew have always managed to get on with Clarks crowd in Victoria.
There are some issues, however, that will cause frustration if not
friction.
Not the least of these is funding for transit and, in particular, a steady revenue stream for TransLink to enable the expansion of the system. That would include Surreys plans for light rail and Vancouvers plans for a subway out to UBC.
When we paused for the election, Transportation Minister Mary Polak, who was re-elected, was proposing future funding be determined by a region-wide referendum. Which isnt just silly as it will pit municipalities against each other, it is a way of delaying or avoiding the issue.
That is complicated now by a premier who did not run or win on promises of expansions to transit and is committed to a debt-free B.C.
The provinces role in dealing with street homelessness and housing affordability will also be an issue. As Ive pointed out before, Rich Coleman was surprisingly supportive as housing minister. But a commitment to getting rid of deficits could have that tap turned to a trickle.
One other thing that will cause friction is the future use of provincially owned property in the city. You may recall that one element in the Liberals balanced budget was the sale of assets to generate revenue for operations. That may well include the sale of provincially owned property within the city limits or generating revenue, as they are doing with the Little Mountain project, by increasing density and building market housing where there was once social housing.
All of this will be beyond the citys control.
And that will give us all something to watch over the next four years.
