Tomorrow, we’ll learn whether Vancouver’s homeless numbers went up, decreased or stayed the same.
From what I’m hearing, the news isn’t as grim as suggested by city manager Penny Ballem and Mayor Gregor Robertson at last Wednesday’s city council meeting.
As I reported after the meeting, Ballem said “we’re starting to perhaps go backwards” and Robertson said “we’re trending now towards the worst case scenario.”
That worst case scenario, by the way, would mean a jump of 273 people living on the street last year to 1,044 this year — an unprecedented increase and total in the city’s history.
I doubt we’ll see those numbers.
An increase, yes.
But not emergency crisis numbers.
Why?
Couple of reasons.
First, let’s go back to March when the mayor told us media types that he anticipated the homeless population would decrease this year.
He, after all, didn’t see any homeless people in the West End during his two-hour shift for this year’s count. For what it’s worth, it’s the same neighbourhood where I remember counting many homeless years ago during an all-night tour with former city homeless advocate Judy Graves.
Anyway, to my question: How could the mayor go from offering a hopeful prediction in March to a doom-and-gloom scenario in April?
His answer last week was based on what Ballem outlined to council — that a combination of single-room-occupancy hotels under renovation, delays in opening interim housing and getting the rest of those 14 supportive housing sites built was reason for alarm.
Ballem also pointed to the cancellation of the Mental Health Commision’s Chez Soi program at the former Bosman hotel and sites scattered around the city.
Add to that the closure of the former Dunsmuir hotel, winter shelters being at capacity and the provincial government providing funding for 55 fewer shelter beds this season; what wasn’t mentioned in Ballem’s presentation was the province provided up to $300,000 to Carnegie Outreach Services to provide 40 rent supplements and support services to help homeless people access housing in the private market.
Surely, Robertson knew all this in March when he made his hopeful prediction. In case you haven’t heard, he’s the same guy whose goal is to end street homelessness by 2015.
So you've got to think last week's comments by Robertson and Ballem were a pre-emptive strike against what is coming tomorrow — a good strategy, since the "worst case scenario" is already in the public consciousness and, if the numbers aren't as bad, then they can say we're thankful it's not as grim.
Which is good news, I guess.
I needed some perspective on this, so I attempted to get hold of Housing Minister Rich Coleman. Instead, I received an email statement.
Here it is, in part:
“There has been no net loss of provincially funded units for those who are homeless in Vancouver. We have opened nine of the 14 new supportive housing developments over the last few years. One more site — 1134 Burrard — just received an occupancy permit this week and three other sites will open this year. This adds another 400 units in 2014.”
The statement went on to say the government invested more than $116 million last year to provide affordable housing to more than 26,000 low-income people, seniors and families in Vancouver.
Nearly 7,400 of those households were in the Downtown Eastside.
So, yes, a lot of numbers.
And politics, too.
It’s an election year, folks.
More to come tomorrow.
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