Two issues are consuming the two major parties in this imminent municipal election: They can't get traction and they are seriously worried about coattails.
There is a traction problem, which is to say getting the public to pay attention because of all the other noise. Monday, for example, the NPA rolled out its arts and culture policy only to be blown off the news agenda by Police Chief Jim Chu announcing recommendations to lay charges against 60 alleged Stanley Cup rioters. But understand that Jim Chu decides to make these kinds of announcements when he alone chooses. It's beyond the control of Vision or the NPA and easily trumps whatever either party has to say.
Then there is Occupy Vancouver, the leaderless lot encamped on the art gallery lawn. (Has it only been three weeks?) It's another issue, in part because it is leaderless and because it's part of a global exercise that nobody here can really get their mitts on. As unfocused as that protest may be-and some say that lack of focus is part of its attraction-my friends in the media would rather pay attention to that than anything Gregor Robertson or Suzanne Anton are on about.
In spite of all that, there will be an election two week from now and there will be winners and losers. While most of us may be oblivious to that exercise, the major campaigns are spending millions identifying their supporters with the ultimate goal of getting them out to vote.
There is also a ton of money being donated. Both the NPA and Vision planned their major fundraising dinners for this week. And as recently as Monday, both declared they were sold out, the NPA at $225 a plate at the Hellenic Community Centre with more than 700 folks while Vision expected about 800 to pay $250 a head to chow down at the Bayshore.
But money never has been the problem for these two adversaries, which brings me to the second issue that has the boys and girls in the backrooms in a state of unease. It's the problem of coattails.
Coattails are a political phenomenon where popular leaders bring their team along with them. In an at-large voting system, such as ours, it's crucial. That's why you can count on one finger the number of independents who have succeeded in getting elected to Vancouver city council in the past four decades, which was Carole Taylor and even then it was with a lot of nudging and winking from the NPA.
While Vision and COPE are relying on Robertson, at least one of those council candidates, Tim Louis, has plans of his own. Last week, he got a great push up the ladder with a shamelessly adoring cover story and a front page photo in the Georgia Straight.
And, doubtless, incumbents on council who are up for re-election have an advantage simply because their names have been out there for many years. But no one gets more votes than the mayoral candidate they're tying their future to. And some get considerably less.
As Robertson's folks have admitted, it's their ability to link him to Vision and Vision (and COPE in this case) to his team in the voters' minds that is key. While Robertson is clearly popular, he is so, um, bland in his appeal, that link has been difficult to make.
There is one other wrinkle: Adriane Carr, the deputy leader of the B.C. Green Party who is running for council. She has virtually no budget and no machine to pull the vote. But the public may still believe there is a deal between Vision and the Greens, which there isn't. That impression, though, could get her a ride on Robertson's coattails.
Anton and the NPA also have a coattail problem. At this point, she has failed to catch fire and it's fairly certain she'll lose to Robertson. Nonetheless, the question is: Can she attract enough voter support to get some of her folks across the line?
All of this is good for a case of nerves.
