B.C.’s housing market deteriorated again in April with a fifth consecutive month of lower sales. According to Canadian Real Estate Association data, seasonally adjusted MLS home sales in the province fell 2.3 per cent from March to 5,331 units, following a 5.9-per-cent dip in the prior month. Although the economy held firm in April with steady employment, consumers are still pessimistic as trade tensions linger and the labour market weakens.
Home sales declined in all B.C. regions except for South Okanagan and Vancouver Island (excluding Victoria). In the Greater Vancouver area, home sales declined by 3.3 per cent, and fell 4.8 per cent in Victoria. Year-over-year sales fell in many areas as well, notably in Greater Vancouver (down 21.1 per cent) and Chilliwack (down 18.3 per cent).
The average home price in B.C. decreased by 0.9 per cent in April to $922,200. Prices now sit 14.1 per cent below the historical peak in February 2022. Housing supply from new listings fell by three per cent. While potential buyers are still hesitant, market conditions are still on their side with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 38.4 per cent.
Regionally, lower prices were recorded in Greater Vancouver (down 1.2 per cent), Vancouver Island excluding Victoria (down 3.6 per cent), Kootenay (down three per cent) and Northern B.C. (down 2.2 per cent). Prices increased in other regions during the month.
Benchmark constant-quality measures were consistent. In the Lower Mainland, the index decreased by 1.2 per cent, and was down 1.6 per cent in the Okanagan. In contrast, the index increased in Chilliwack by 1.4 per cent and was unchanged on Vancouver Island.
Going forward, we expected tempered sales and easing prices to continue as a tariff-driven economic slowdown lifts the unemployment rate and restrains confidence, and inventory remains elevated. This will continue until mortgage rates fall further and trade uncertainty stabilizes.
On the construction front, March permits picked up ahead of an upswing in housing starts in April. Building permit issuances were up by 7.9 per cent in March, coming in at a seasonally adjusted $2.9 billion. Compared to a year ago, building permits were up 89.6 per cent for March, but permits are highly volatile. Year-to-date permit volumes in B.C. were 41 per cent higher than in the same period last year.
Driving B.C. growth was the residential sector, which saw a notable increase in multiple dwelling buildings permits of 29.9 per cent. The result was almost double the increase registered last March. Single-dwelling building permits were also up 6.4 per cent and were 0.6 per cent above last March’s level. Year-to-date residential permits were 43 per cent higher than in the first quarter of 2024.
In contrast, B.C.’s non-residential sector saw building permits decrease 19.2 per cent in March, driven by a 29.6-per-cent decrease in commercial permits, following a surge in permits issued in February. Institutional and governmental permits also fell four per cent. Despite the retrenchment, public permits were still 274.6 per cent above last March. Despite the monthly volatility, year-to-date permits in B.C.’s non-residential sector were 36.7 per cent higher than in the same period last year.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
