Metro Vancouver can expect a warmer-than-average summer, but the seasonal details won't emerge until closer to individual weather events.
Environment Canada meteorologist Bobby Sekhon says the department expects temperatures through June to climb above the monthly average, with a similar trend expected through the entire three-month summer forecast.
Meteorological summer kicks off on June 1 and continues through Aug. 30. Environment Canada will release its official, complete summer forecast on June 1.
The Weather Network, a weather forecasting television network, released its official forecast on May 28, warning of a heat dome and "ring of fire" stretching across a large swath of the country, including parts of B.C., but missing coastal areas and the Lower Mainland.
Sekhon wouldn't comment on The Weather Network's specific forecast, but notes that individual weather events, such as heat domes, can't be predicted outside of a 10-day range (not unlike intrusions of frigid Arctic air that produce cold snaps).
Summer Metro Vancouver weather forecast doesn't include specific events
Ten days is a generous timeline. Meteorologists can see a strong ridge of high pressure - a key ingredient for heat domes - develop in this timeline, but won't issue a heat warning until days before the event, since conditions may shift.
In the June 2021 heat dome, the most lethal weather event in B.C. history claiming 600 lives was observed roughly 10 days in advance because it was a notably strong ridge of high pressure.
Additionally, the unprecedented heat event occurred in during the year's longest days of sunlight, Sekhon explains.
"We saw a really strong indication and issued a long-lead time warning," he says, noting that the department issued the heat advisory five days before the event, several days more than it typically issues them.
The meteorologist notes that long-range forecasts don't include specific details but rather provide an overall indication of what to expect.
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