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Will Vancouver have a White Christmas? The Weather Network weighs in

The odds are looking pretty good.

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

While snow-dusted holidays are few and far between in Metro Vancouver, the odds are stacked in favour of at least some snowfall on the big day this year. 

Typically, Christmases in the city are wet or dry; a frosty holiday is decidedly rare. But the blast of Arctic air moving into Metro Vancouver over the weekend may provide conditions for snowfall to persist through the holiday, according to a new report. 

While most Canadian cities typically have at least a 50 per cent chance of a white Christmas except for Vancouver, this year's forecast is "ripe for old snow to linger and fresh snow to fall," explains The Weather Network. 

Starting this weekend, the "coldest air on Earth" will make its way across Alaska, down through the Yukon, and into southern British Columbia. 

Originating in the coldest inhabited town in the world — a village in Russia's frozen Siberia — the bitterly cold air mass made its way across the Arctic Sea, bringing sub-zero temperatures and the possibility of plentiful snowfall in the Lower Mainland. 

Snow is expected throughout the week, with flurries or heavier amounts forecasted through Thursday (Dec. 22). 

That said, B.C.'s South Coast, including Vancouver, has the "greatest uncertainty," despite the ample snowfall the city saw in 2021. It's still a bit early to say if the region will see more snowfall past Thursday, or if temperatures will warm up. 

Will the Metro Vancouver weather forecast include a white Christmas this year?

Environment Canada analyzed 65 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day in the 65-year span between 1955 and 2019.

In some places, the odds of having a white Christmas are 100 per cent, such as in Kenora, Yellowknife, and Whitehorse. In Vancouver, the data showed that there was only a slim possibility of waking up to a frosty wonderland, with a nine per cent chance of snow on the big day. 

When it comes to "perfect Christmas" conditions, however, the possibility of an ideal day is even lower. The national weather forecaster characterizes this "perfect" holiday as having 2 cm of snow on the ground or more in the morning and a measurable amount of snow falling in the air during the day. 

 The Weather Network uses Environment Canada's historical data for reference. Photo via The Weather Network